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New Market Analysis: Polyamide Markets on the Upswing

December 02, 2020 | William Bann

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Polyamide markets have seen an encouraging upturn in the last few weeks, a welcome development after the months of depressed prices and volumes this year. A number of factors have combined to bring about recovery in the polyamide markets. Tecnon OrbiChem monitors these factors and provides information and analyses in several ways. One method we use is to correlate world consumption trends with GDP, and to use the historical correlations to make forecasts of future demand. This approach, together with information on supply and demand of caprolactam, adipic acid and HMDA, form the basis for a concise summary of expected trends in the PA6 and PA66 industries and key intermediates markets. This analysis, the Polyamide & Intermediates Strategic Market Overview has just been published.

The analysis in this Overview is based on a detailed database of the PA6 and PA66 industries, both fibres and engineering resin, together with the supply position for their intermediates. The Polyamide & Intermediates Supply-Demand Database, which includes detailed data from every year from 1990-2030, covers all countries of relevance and is updated to the post-COVID-19 situation.

The views on market development and the detailed numerical data of the above two publications are directed to long-term planning for the polyamide industry, but additional information is needed for next year’s business plan and budgeting. For this objective, price forecasts are supplied for PA6 and PA66 and caprolactam for the next 18 months on a rolling basis in the Chem-Foresight price forecasts which provide predictions for three different scenarios of crude oil prices, to allow the reader to interpolate between scenarios as markets develop. The forecasts are based on algorithms that take account of energy and feedstock costs, the supply-demand balance and exogenous factors such as unscheduled plant shutdowns.

With regard to the close monitoring of markets on a monthly basis, there is the well-known Polyamide & Intermediates Chemical Business Focus. Tecnon OrbiChem has been reporting on and analysing the supply chain from benzene through to PA6 and PA66 fibres and resins for the last 40 years. For each link in this chain the CBF publication describes market conditions, prices, and factors shaping the market, to give a full picture of the market dynamics, even for niche products such as polyamide tyrecord.

In the case of caprolactam, markets in Asia are reported on a weekly basis in the Caprolactam Weekly Update.

Keeping abreast of developments has become all the more pressing in the current phase of emergence from a recession, which seasoned observers know can be accompanied by shortages as plants struggle to reach capacity operation, or are brought out of sleep mode. Supply shortages have been observed in recent weeks for caprolactam, despite what seems to be more than adequate capacity availability. Shortages have been experienced more acutely for PA66 and its intermediates, especially adiponitrile, through a combination of hurricane disruption and plant malfunction. The best way to keep in touch with all these trends and the factors shaping the polyamide market is to subscribe to some or all of the publications listed above. The best deal in a negotiation goes to the participant with the best information!

For more information about all our Polyamide & Intermediates services, or to purchase the new Strategic Market Overview please fill out the form below.

 

 

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